Conference game
Mississippi State at Ole Miss
Friday, November 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Mississippi State 23% Underdog
Ole Miss 77% Favorite
Ole Miss is the model's favorite at 77%. Mississippi State has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Ole Miss — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Mississippi State offense
34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Ole Miss offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup